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Mapped: Ukraine’s incursion into the Russian Kursk region explained

Ukraine’s attack into Kursk has left Vladimir Putin’s forces scrambling

Tom Watling
Tuesday 20 August 2024 10:02
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Ukrainian servicemen operate an armoured military vehicle on a road near the border with Russia, in the Sumy region of Ukraine
Ukrainian servicemen operate an armoured military vehicle on a road near the border with Russia, in the Sumy region of Ukraine (AFP via Getty Images)

Ukrainian forces have captured hundreds of square miles of territory inside Russia in one of the most significant incursions into Russia since the Secind World War.

Thousands of Ukrainian troops smashed over the border from Ukraine’s Sumy region into the neighbouring Russian Kursk region on 6 August.

Since then, Kyiv’s forces have claimed to have taken more land in a fortnight than Russia has in Ukraine during this entire calendar year.

While the ground offensive appears to be slowing down, with Russian forces moving “several thousand” troops from less hot areas on the frontline in Ukraine, Kyiv’s air force have started destroying Moscow’s vital military supply lines, suffocating the troops still defending the area in Kursk. .

How much territory has Ukraine taken in Russia?

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The numbers vary. Calculating territory taken during an incursion that ebbs and flows is difficult.

Ukraine’s army chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrksyi claims his forces have captured almost 445 square miles (1,150 sq kilometres) of land in Kursk, while they have also set up a military commandant’s office in the occupied part of the region.

For context, that is nearly three times the amount of territory they retook in occupied Ukraine during their three-month counteroffensive last summer, according to estimates.

The Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a US-based think tank that tracks developments on the frontline, offers a more conservative estimate of around 300 square miles (800 sq km).

Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, meanwhile, said last week that Kyiv’s forces were pushing “one to two kilometres” further all along the new frontline.

The attack, which appears as a bulge into mainland Russia, is around 37 miles wide and almost 17 miles deep.

Could Ukraine take more territory?

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Last Friday, Ukraine’s air force destroyed the first of three bridges on the Seym River to the west of the Ukrainian troops in Kursk.

On Saturday and then Sunday night, they destroyed the two other permanent bridges in that area, leaving Russian troops in the southern half of the Glushkovsky district, which is bisected by the Seym, effectively trapped between the river, the Ukrainian border and Kyiv’s forces in front of them.

“The aviation of the Air Force continues to deprive the enemy of logistical capabilities with accurate air strikes, which significantly affects the course of hostilities!” air force commander Mykola Oleschuk wrote on Sunday morning.

Recent drone footage from a Ukrainian brigade also suggests that Kyiv is now using first-person view (FPV) drones to destroy the makeshift Russian pontoon crossings erected in the days since the targeted strikes on the bridges.

The Centre for Defence Strategies, a Ukrainian security think tank, wrote that this indicates “that the objective [of Ukrainian forces] is to take control of a portion of Kursk Oblast south of the Seym River.

Should they take this area, they would almost double the territory they currently control.

How many troops are involved?

Ukrainian servicemen guard an area at a destroyed border crossing point with Russia
Ukrainian servicemen guard an area at a destroyed border crossing point with Russia (AFP via Getty Images)

A Ukrainian colonel who asked not to be identified to speak openly about sensitive issues told The Independent that around 8,000 soldiers were involved in the incursion.

Thousands more Ukrainian soldiers were ready to enter the fray, he said.

He claimed, in comments that were mirrored by multiple Ukrainian officials, including Mr Zelensky, that the troops were planning to hold their positions to create a “buffer zone”.

Most simply, this zone would put more distance between Russian forces and Ukrainian civilians, reducing, though not halting completely, Moscow’s ability to fire artillery and missiles over the border.

It would also prevent another Russian cross-border assault of their own like the one into the nearby northeast Ukrainian region of Kharkiv in May, which brought the country’s second largest city - with a population of around 1.3 million people - roughly within artillery range of Russian forces.

How many Russian civilians have been evacuated?

Volunteers sort a humanitarian aid for residents of Kursk region at the humanitarian collection point 'Moscow Helps' in Moscow, Russia
Volunteers sort a humanitarian aid for residents of Kursk region at the humanitarian collection point 'Moscow Helps' in Moscow, Russia (EPA)

Russian officials say nearly 200,000 civilians have been evacuated from the Kursk region and the neighbouring Belgorod area.

Ukrainian forces have not entered Belgorod but a state of emergency has been declared and local officials say Ukraine has launched aerial attacks on the area.

Authorities in the Kursk region decided late on Wednesday night to evacuate another district, Glushkov, as Ukrainian forces continue to advance forwards.

The district directly borders Ukraine and has a population of about 20,000 people. Regional governor Alexei Smirnov said on the Telegram messaging app that police and other state bodies would coordinate the evacuation process.

Have Ukraine captured Russian soldiers?

Mr Zelensky this week claimed one of the goals of the incursion was to replenish an “exchange fund” of Russian prisoners of war.

Thousands of POWs from both sides have been swapped throughout the course of the war in Ukraine, with exchanges taking place roughly every few months.

Private and public estimations of how many Russian soldiers have been captured during this incursion differ significantly.

Mr Zelensky has suggested around Ukrainian troops have taken roughly 100 PoWs; the Ukrainian colonel claimed the true figure was closer to 2,000.

Footage has, however, showed blindfolded men that appear to be Russian soldiers being escorted through the Ukrainian Sumy region in the back of a military pick up.

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